The Convener of the League of Northern Democrats and key promoter of the All-Democratic Alliance (ADA), Dr Umar Ardo, has predicted that President Bola Tinubu may secure less than 10 per cent of votes in Northern Nigeria in the 2027 presidential election if the poll is free and fair.
Speaking during an exclusive interview on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM, Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State, Ardo said the President’s electoral support in the region would depend largely on how voters assess his administration.
He identified insecurity, economic hardship, poverty and the rising cost of living as issues that could shape the political choices of Northern voters ahead of the election.
According to Ardo, the administration’s handling of insecurity remains a major concern in the region, with insurgency and other security challenges continuing to affect communities, farmers and businesses.
He argued that the security situation could be significantly reduced if the Federal Government adopts the right strategy and demonstrates the political will to tackle the problem.
“You can solve the issue of insecurity and insurgency in one year,” he said.
Ardo said insecurity has consequences beyond the loss of lives and property, as farmers, traders and other citizens cannot operate effectively when their safety remains under threat.
He also criticised the economic reforms of the Tinubu administration, particularly the removal of fuel subsidy, questioning whether ordinary Nigerians have seen tangible benefits from the policy.
“Subsidy removal, is it a benefit?” he asked.
Ardo argued that the economic reforms had weakened the purchasing power of Nigerians despite salary increases received by some workers.
“The purchasing power has been depreciated,” Ardo said, adding that the economic situation has made it increasingly difficult for Nigerians to afford basic necessities.
He further argued that the impact of the reforms has been particularly severe in Northern Nigeria because of the region’s large population of poor people.
“The economic reform has pushed from the state of poverty to destitution,” he said.
Ardo also raised concerns about political representation under the Tinubu administration, arguing that the composition of government can influence how citizens perceive the administration and its commitment to different regions.
He maintained that the question of representation should be considered alongside the broader issues of governance and the actual impact of government policies on citizens.
The political commentator said the 2027 election would therefore provide an opportunity for Northern voters to assess the administration based on their experiences since Tinubu assumed office.
He argued that the region’s political choices should not be viewed as permanently tied to the voting pattern recorded during the 2023 presidential election.
Rather, he said, the prevailing economic and security conditions would play an important role in determining the direction of Northern votes.
Against this backdrop, Ardo gave his assessment of Tinubu’s prospects in the region if the 2027 election meets the standard of a free, fair and credible poll.
He said, “If a free, fair and credible election is conducted in Nigeria, Tinubu can’t get 10 percent of the Northern part.”
Ardo’s prediction could therefore shift attention to the opposition’s ability to capitalise on any decline in Tinubu’s northern support. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), and the Peter Obi-Rabiu Kwankwaso ticket of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) are positioned as major potential beneficiaries of any realignment in the region.
While Atiku brings a strong political base in the North-East, Kwankwaso offers the NDC significant influence in Kano and parts of the North-West, making the battle for northern votes a potentially decisive factor in the 2027 presidential contest.
