A Research Professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Professor Olufemi Otubanjo, has said Nigeria’s worsening security situation is increasingly being fuelled by the internationalisation of terrorism across the Sahel region, warning that armed criminals and insurgents displaced from neighbouring countries are finding their ways into Nigeria.
The international relations scholar explained that while insurgency in Nigeria was once largely associated with Boko Haram, the security landscape has evolved into a broader regional challenge involving armed groups operating across national borders.
He said: “the problem is that insurgency has become so international. It used to be Boko Haram alone but it looks like the insurgents are running away from different parts of the world, including Sudan. We are beginning to see Sudanese in Nigeria as bandits, coming to kidnap us.”
Speaking on Thursday during an exclusive interview on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM, Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State, Otubanjo noted that some of the insurgents fleeing conflicts in other parts of Africa are now exploiting Nigeria’s vast territory and governance gaps to establish criminal operations.
He argued that such spaces provide opportunities for criminal groups to infiltrate communities, carry out attacks and retreat before security forces can effectively respond: “There are many places that have no presence of government. So, everybody can walk in and take over for a couple of times. And then, of course, at the end of the day, if government intervenes, those people will run away,” he said.
Otunbanjo also linked the growing instability in parts of the Sahel to the effects of climate change, noting that environmental degradation, desert encroachment and loss of livelihoods have forced many people to migrate in search of survival.
“We don’t know how much climate change is creating havoc in terms of population and livelihood. A lot of people have lost their homes. They have lost their jobs because the sand bulls have taken over their villages and communities. They are taking over their farms. And they are moving down”, he said.
According to him, many of the migrants moving southward are not terrorists but victims of economic hardship and insecurity who have been displaced by worsening conditions in northern parts of the region: “A lot of the northerners that we see in Lagos and we think that, oh, maybe they are terrorists, they are economic migrants. They are running away from hopelessness and joblessness in the north. Because there is no new investment,” he added.
The professor, however, maintained that despite persistent insecurity, it would be inaccurate to conclude that the Federal Government and security agencies are inactive.
He said: “There is a challenge of security in Nigeria. No doubt about it. And we have not overcome it but that is not to say that government is not doing what is necessary”.
He stressed that the fight against terrorism and banditry is a gradual process that requires sustained military operations, intelligence gathering and regional cooperation rather than expecting instant results.
“The government cannot tell you every day that we killed two or three people today, we are ending the insurgency tomorrow. It’s not done. It’s a process. And the people, of course, are impatient. Yes, we don’t want to see kidnapping again. We don’t want to see bandits. But it doesn’t happen like that. It’s a process”
The research professor added that soldiers are making sacrifices daily in the fight against terrorism, with many personnel paying the ultimate price while trying to restore peace across affected regions.
“In summary, let me say that I’m not so sure I can vouch for Tinubu’s record on terrorism, but you know that they are not laying idle. And they are working. Soldiers are dying. And so we must give it to them and pray that they will do better and get us out of this mess,” Otubanjo said.
Responding to claims that strained relations between Nigeria and some military-led governments in the Sahel have contributed to rising insecurity, Otubanjo dismissed the suggestion, arguing that countries such as Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso are themselves grappling with severe insurgency challenges:
“Niger has its own insurgency almost on three fronts. Mali is fighting. Burkina Faso has its own challenges. These are all countries that are fighting insurgency themselves,” he said.
He noted that regional governments have continued to collaborate through multinational security arrangements aimed at combating terrorism across the Sahel, “We have a multinational joint task force that’s supposed to cooperate among countries in the Sahel to fight insurgency. And it’s working”, he added.
NIGERIA MAINTAINS FRIENDLY TIES ACROSS GLOBAL BLOCS
Despite the security concerns, Otubanjo described Nigeria’s diplomatic standing as one of the country’s strongest assets, noting that the nation enjoys cordial relations with virtually all countries and is not engaged in any state-to-state conflict.
Assessing the country’s broader foreign policy outlook, he said Nigeria remains one of the few nations with friendly ties across major geopolitical blocs despite growing global rivalries.
“But in terms of overall foreign policy, we have peaceful relations with almost everyone. Nigeria is one of the greatest countries in the world in terms of having no enemies,” he said.
Otubanjo argued that occasional disagreements between nations should not be mistaken for hostility especially when involving global powers such as the United States, Russia and China.
He further described the relationship between Nigeria and the United States as fundamentally friendly, insisting that diplomatic differences are normal in international relations and do not amount to enmity.
“There’s no enemy-state conflict.The United States is our friend.Even between wives and husbands, there are quarrels once a while. It doesn’t mean they are enemies”, he stated.
